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Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Lessons to Learn for 2012 From a 2011 Republican Loss(CD NY-26)

For those that are unaware nationwide, we had a Congressional election here in Western New York yesterday, 5/24/2011. While there was some national media coverage, even Rush Limbaugh himself was unaware of the election until today. The seat for Congressional District NY-26 was vacated by Chris Lee after a sex scandal. The candidates included Republican Jane Corwin(NY state assemblywoman), Democrat Kathy Hochul(Erie County Clerk) and Jack Davis the pseudo-Tea Party(more to be explained later) candidate running on the stolen “Tea Party” label. Kathy Hochul(D) won with 47% of the vote to Jane Corwin’s 43% and Jack Davis’s 9%(1% to the Greenparty candidate) in a longtime Republican held district.

A day out of the special election in Congressional District NY-26, I have some obervations I’d like to make as Republican CD NY-26 constituent and Jane Corwin voter. These observations are intended to help the cause of gaining Rep. seats in the House, taking the Senate and the Presidency in 2012. You’ll find that some of these observations(and suggestions) apply to all political offices. Additionally, you will find some of these observations are critical of the Republican party in respect to this race.



-If you’re already in office “Keep your shirt on”, we in CD NY-26(and the Rep. party) had great representation in Chris Lee until a scandal broke when this married man had a picture exposed of him sending a shirtless picture to a woman he met on Craigslist. It’s a shame we lost him, Republicans can’t afford to lose seats to scandal. Leave that to the Democrats.



-Don’t ever assume your district is a “safe” Red district, Chris Lee retained this seat with 73% of the vote in 2010, look how quickly things changed in one year. A few mistakes and a “spolier” candidate(more below) could change things quickly. On the same token, don’t assume any traditional Blue districts are safe. Get out the vote everywhere!



- The media was as usual clearly in the Democrats corner(especially here in NY). We as Republicans need to stop complaining about the mainstream media, they will always side with Democrats, it’s reality. We need to focus our energy on creating our own media. Facebook and blog sites are a great way to get the word out, specifically about information our mainstream media ignores.



-Don’t doubt the Democrats “get out the vote drive”. In this Republican district going back to 2000 with a 2008 PVI index of +6 Republican(in New York State) and with 73% voting Republican in 2010, they flat out did a better job. I saw Hochul signs everwhere(Jack Davis too).



-Communicate with your representation to properly vet all candidates in the instance they appoint the nominee(such as this election). Jane Corwin had the potential to be a good candidate(ended up being avg.) and was chosen fairly quickly. Republican leadership in Erie County should have strongly considered Decorated Iraq War Vet David Bellavia and Kathy Weppner”, “StraightTalk with Kathy Weppner on WBEN for those in WNY. Either could have been great candidates and I think would have won the election. Look for these two come 2012.



-Watch out for significant third party candidates entering the race stealing the Tea Party Label from the true “Tea Party” candidate. As we know, lines can be created through petitioning. Jack Davis, an unsuccessful Democrat in several past elections, and his $2million were enough to get him in on this race stealing the “Tea Party” label and confusing voters.His 9% of the vote could have spolied the election for Corwin. I admire his military service, but he has no business in politcis. Jane Corwin, the 2nd most conservative member of the NY State assembly, was the true “Tea Party” candidate, endorsed by “Tea New York”(largest in the state), “Tea Party Express”(largest in the country) and notable Tea Party politicians Marco Rubio and Allen West.



-As an active duty soldier or military veteran, do not be obligated to automatically vote for the military veteran.Many veterans did this in Western new York. While a man or woman may have shown great leadership on the battlefield, it does not mean they can show great leadership in DC. If the military candidate is right on the issues, such as Allen West, of course give he/she your vote, but don’t let just military service be the deciding factor. It can spell disaster for the party I feel represents the military the best.



-Stay away from sneak attack interviews on opposition as this video ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PF-E3qNP4j0 ) of confrontation between a Corwin staffer Michael mallia and Jack Davis was intended to help the Corwin campaign, but likely cost her votes. As an aside, when the shoe is on the other foot, the media of course blames the Republican candidate. See the Fred Dicker/Carl Paladino confrontation here-> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCn9yspCl_g. Somehow that time the media blamed the candidate attacked when in this election the staffer was criticized.



-In re: to the above post, it might not be a great idea for the GOP to immiediately post the Mallia/Davis without considering the consequences. Additionally, in regards to Corwin’s response, if your 23 year old chief of staff takes off to FL(with a $5000 interview bounty on nhis head) just fire the guy. Don’t defend him, distance yourself.



-Regardless of how much money your campaingn has to spend, 5 Robo-calls in one day from the same candidate(Corwin) can annoy your voters and keep them away from the polls.



-Leave the smear attacks to the Democrats, counter with sticking to the issues. The “smear” commercials(TV and Radio) were constant from all 3 candidates in this race with $10million spent. As Republicans, use our advertisements to stick to the issues



-Last, but not least, the Democrats seem to think they have 2012 in the bag because of this one Congressional race which they think is a referendum on Paul Ryan’s buget and his Medicare plan. First of all as a person born and bred in WNY, I can tell you we are not representative of the nation. They are going to claim every Rep. candidate is “throwing Grandma off the cliff”(If you haven’t seen the commercial). Be prepared to debate and discuss these issues. Counter their smears. Explain that this new plan won’t affect anyone 55 or older in any way. Explain that the “Afforable Care Act”(part of ObamaCare) itself only claims to extend Medicare insolvency from 2017-2029(lately I’ve heard 2024). Here it is in print-> http://www.mmapinc.org/pdfs/ACA-Update-Implementing-Medicare-Costs-Savings.pdf .

Inquire as to what we are to do after 2029. Inquire if they would prefer vouchers or an insolvent program. In regards to the budget, inquire as to where the Democratic budget proposal is. Obama’s budget proposal isn’t going anywhere, voted down 97-0 in the Senate today(5/25/2011). Explain to them that without serious(and difficult) decisions, the country may fall to the brink of financial collapse(and just might go over the edge). Know these issues, the Budget and Medicare, like the back of your hand. Counter the grandma attacks by explaining that the children and grandchildren of this country are going to suffer if we don’t get the country in order. As Republicans we need to take the offensive on this issue, not the defensive.



Joshua Zorn
Constituent of NY 26
Anyone else dedicated to the 2012 cause now in 2011, please friend request me!
10:10 pm est


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